Tripledemic could hit UK – RSV could join winter virus mix
At the start of the autumn, experts warned that the UK could be hit by two viruses this winter, Covid and flu. Also known as a twindemic, this caused great concern among both the health and scientific community amid fears it could put pressure on the NHS and the health system as a whole. Fast forward to November and experts are warning of a ‘tripledemic’ of flu, COVID-19 and, RSV.
However, before we understand those conditions, it is key to understand what a tripledemic is. A tripledemic is like a twindemic except instead of two waves of two viruses hitting at the same time, three waves of three viruses hit at the same time.
In this case, two of the three viruses are well known and understood, flu and COVID-19, the original pillars of the twindemic. However, the other, RSV, is less often discussed.
Also known as respiratory syncytial virus, an infection that’s normally mild, but which can cause pneumonia and swelling of the airwaves in babies, the elderly, and vulnerable people.
While mild in some cases, it is the leading cause of infant hospitalisations in the UK and close to a third of under fives are thought to have it.
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Overall, according to the United Kingdom Health Security Agency (UKHSA) around seven percent of the general population has RSV.
The symptoms the RSV virus causes normally include a fever, coughing, and a runny nose, similar to the symptoms of a mild cold.
It’s not so much the impact of RSV on its own, but rather how it will affect the population already battling to avoid COVID-19 and flu. The fear among experts is that the combination of the three conditions will cause a wave of hospitalisations.
Speaking about the tripledemic, Emeritus Professor Ron Eccles told the Daily Mail: “When lots of people get ill at the same time, and particularly during the winter, the pressure on health services can be very intense.”
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Professor Eccles’ warning comes at a time when flu cases have risen earlier and faster than ever before this winter.
This is a phenomenon which has been driven by the fact that this is the UK’s first uninterrupted flu season since the beginning of the pandemic. In both the winters of 2020 and 2021, there were restrictions which lessened each flu season.
As a result, there were fears that lower population immunity would lead to people developing more severe symptoms of flu and lead to the most vulnerable becoming hospitalised.
Following on from the flu the nation also has COVID-19 to combat and the sixth wave which the UK is currently working its way through.
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While many had started to become used to the Covid winter peaks, this winter looks to be different as cases and hospitalisations start to plateau or decline as the UK heads towards the festive period.
Despite this, there is no place for misplaced optimism as experts warn someone experiencing mild Covid could become seriously ill if they also catch the flu as well.
A study published by Edinburgh University found that patients with both Covid and flu were more than twice as likely to die. However, this does not mean someone with both COVID-19 and flu guaranteed to experience hospitalisation.
Rather, Professor Eccles believes the most likely outcome is that people will become infected with all three, one after the other.
The Professor explained: “What could happen is that someone gets RSV, becomes ill and clears the infection; then succumbs to flu, gets ill and clears the infection; and finally catches Covid – all in a few weeks.”
“This would be debilitating even if you’re not in the at-risk groups” added the Professor.
In both the short and long term, it is difficult to predict the impact of the tripledemic and the chaos it could cause.
What it does show though is that while Covid may be in decline, there are plenty of viral threats to be wary of this winter.
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