David Llewellyn-Smith

Australia is in per capita recession. This means that the average individual’s share of economic output is shrinking.It is not a headline recession only because of rampant population growth, lifting aggregate output enough to prevent it.…

A few short weeks later financial markets are fast reappraising the appointment. Market pricing and scuttlebutt are concerned that Bullock’s promotion was political and Treasurer Jim Chalmers has an undue influence over monetary policy.Bad…

Once upon a time, there was a land of sweeping plains, ragged mountain ranges and boundless cheap energy.That place no longer exists.In its place is a land of droughts and flooding rains that get worse every year with the most expensive…

In a world of gamed markets and financialisation, iron ore stands out as one commodity still traded largely on fundamentals. There are three clear reasons for the current price falls. The first is that demand for steel in China is weak,…

This week witnessed the first interest rate cuts in a new monetary easing cycle that will overtake the Reserve Bank in the second half of 2023. The Commonwealth Bank quietly cut its three-year fixed mortgage rates 40 basis points to 5.59…

After Tuesday’s RBA cash rate pause, economists are divided about what comes next. However, the market is more sure. Cash rate futures expect the RBA to cut rates by the end of the year.RBA cash rate futures curveThe likelihood is that the…

It is hard for Australians to believe, but the US has 4800 banks. That is one bank for every 70,000 people. In Australia, the ratio is one bank for every 260,000 people.This makes the US hugely over-banked by Australian standards which…

The performance of Australian central banking has soured for more than a decade. Before the Global Financial Crisis, forecasting and monetary policy seemed to run itself. Inflation was largely quiescent, exports were driven by China, and…

As the Reserve Bank of Australia lifted its cash rate another 25 basis points to 3.35% today it stated that “the Board is seeking to return inflation to the 2–3% range while keeping the economy on an even keel, but the path to achieving a…

You can never say never when it comes to stock markets. They are the craziest of all asset markets. Sentiment-driven, full of forced buying and selling robots, and without peer when it comes to responding to macro-stimuli.All three of these…