Online sales take $124m hit as rates and inflation bite

“The figures indicate the post-COVID economic recovery is patchy – in full swing across some areas while South Australia and WA, as well as Victoria, continue to struggle.”

More traditional measures of consumer activity also highlight the pressure facing consumers.

Westpac’s card tracker index, which measures activity through its network of debit and credit cards, softened through the first two weeks of April. Through the March quarter, the index was down 0.3 per cent.

Senior Westpac economist Matthew Hassan said while it was difficult to measure consumer activity through the Easter period, it appeared shoppers were starting to close their wallets.

“There are tentative signs of an underlying softening, but we will need to see the post-Easter rebound before this can be confirmed and quantified,” he said.

“While the pulse heading into June quarter is a little unclear, the evidence of a weak March quarter for the consumer is continuing to build.

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“Card tracker figures for the quarter as a whole and a range of official indicators to February, including retail sales, now suggest spending stalled in nominal terms, a result that would imply a contraction in real terms.”

The Reserve Bank board meets on May 2, with financial markets putting the chance of interest rates being held steady for a second successive month at better than 90 per cent.

That’s despite last week’s stronger than expected March employment report that showed the jobless rate steady at 3.5 per cent, a 72,200 jump in the number of full-time workers and a record high participation rate.