NFL Week 7 best bets: Three games with intriguing early lines and odds

New England Patriots defensive end Deatrich Wise Jr., left, strips the ball from Cleveland Browns quarterback Jacoby Brissett during the Patriots’ win Sunday.

(Rick Osentoski / Associated Press)

The Browns, who continue to struggle on defense, are riding back-to-back overs into this one. The game against the Falcons had the yardage and the chances to go over as well. The Ravens defense has not been spectacular either, so we’ve got another scenario with two good rushing teams against two bad defenses. Running teams are the ones having more success with all the Cover-2, Cover-3 and zone being called and these two teams should have offensive success this week.

Cleveland’s offense was bottled up by New England, but Bill Belichick sold out against the run and outfoxed Kevin Stefanski again, much like he did in last year’s blowout loss for the Browns. Since Stefanski took over the Browns in 2020, the regular season meetings have had 44, 89, 26 and 46 points, so the games have been up and down, but last year’s first game had six turnovers and the second game didn’t have Lamar Jackson. The 44-point game in 2020 was Stefanski’s first with the team as head coach and there was no preseason. The Ravens have averaged almost 31 points per game against the Browns since the coaching change.

Baltimore had 211 rushing yards against the Giants and actually had seven yards per play, yet found a way to lose. In Cleveland’s loss to the Patriots, the score and the defensive scheme forced Jacoby Brissett into 45 pass attempts out of 67 total plays. That isn’t the blueprint for success and I would assume that Cleveland runs a lot more against a Baltimore defense that went into the Giants game giving up six yards per play and five yards per carry.

Pick: Over 45.5