Mark Kelly Up Double Digits in New Arizona Poll as Libertarian Plays Spoiler for Blake Masters

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A new poll in the key Arizona U.S. Senate race between incumbent Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) and GOP nominee Blake Masters is suddenly a three-person race according to a new poll as the Libertarian candidate Marc Victor is now in double digits.

The survey conducted by Arizona-based OH Predictive Insights was reported on exclusively by the National Journal’s daily Hotline Tuesday and showed Kelly leading Masters 46% to 33% – a double-digit lead.

The poll surveyed 674 likely voters in the state from Oct. 4-6 and found Victor with 15% of the vote, while 6% remained undecided.

Kelly’s and Masters’s vote share remained largely unchanged since the same survey was taken in September. The big shift in the poll was toward Victor who had only 6% support in September. Notably, the three candidates shared the debate stage on Friday before the poll was taken.

The debate gave Victor equal footing with his two major-party opponents and was often very contentious at times as Kelly and Masters exchanged barbs.

RealClearPolitics recently projected Masters, a former venture capitalist backed by billionaire Peter Thiel, to win the race, a key victory needed to clinch the majority in the Senate for the GOP.

Oddly, the RealClearPolitics average of polls still has Kelly up by 4 points.

The National Journal reported on the shifting dynamics of the race, noting that Kelly came into the general election well-positioned:

“Kelly was one of the few candidates to run ahead of Biden in 2020 and the consensus among operatives in both parties who spoke with National Journal is that the junior senator from the Grand Canyon state is in a better position than the three other vulnerable Democratic incumbents,” namely Sens. Raphael Warnock (D-GA), Maggie Hassan (D-NH), and Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV).

The rise of Victor in the polls will likely only help Kelly as conservatives uncomfortable with the hardline Masters now have a home they can go to without having to give their vote to keep the Democratic Party in control of the U.S. Senate.

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