Map reveals real danger in coming deluge

“A concerning flood threat is likely to develop in the coming days and into the weekend, as widespread rainfall is likely to lead to widespread flooding in New South Wales,” said the Bureau of Meteorology’s (BOM) Dean Narromore.

Anywhere between Moree – in the state’s north – and Albury-Wodonga on the Victorian border is at threat. Indeed, the powerful weather system could stretch into Victoria, southern Queensland and northern NSW.

Sky News Weather meteorologist Alison Osborne said 60-80mm could fall over wide areas during the next few days and up to 150mm in some local deluges.

“That’s over a month’s worth of rain falling in the next three days alone. Some towns inland we’ll see that in under a day.”

Wednesday could be a big day of rain for NSW – including coastal cities such as Sydney – and then the weekend will ramp that up further.

Map shows danger of coming rain

A map released by the BOM shows why this weather event has meteorologists so worried.

It’s not just that a repeating waves of rain are pushing in from the west and joining up with tropical moisture as it heads east. Although that’s bad enough.

It’s that parts of NSW simply can’t absorb any more precipitation. The BOM map vividly shows large tracts of the state with minor, moderate and major flood warnings. And that’s before this next weather event arrives.

“Our dams are full, our soils are saturated, and we can’t take any more rainfall.

“But unfortunately, a lot more is on the way,” said Mr Narromore.

“This type of rainfall on already saturated and flooded creeks, streams and rivers is likely to lead to possible inundation of homes, properties and businesses, widespread inundation of agricultural land, impacting crops and livestock, and likely to lead to major travel disruptions with numerous road closures.”

Or, as Sky Weather’s Ms Osborne put it, “it’s like pouring a cup of water into an already full bucket”.

Record breaking October rain is a real possibility in the coming days for inland towns like Bourke, Cobar, Nyngan and Condobolin.

That will begin on Wednesday morning in those areas.

Things should settle down on Thursday, but on Friday it starts getting heavier again.

That’s because another rain band is coming in right behind the current system, piling moisture upon moisture.

Generally there could be rain anywhere in NSW, but the far north east – places such as Byron Bay and Port Macquarie – may see less than further south.

Sydney could see more than 100mm

Sydney is likely to get a battering too with 80-125mm forecast to come down by Sunday.

Rain clouds will gather over Sydney on Wednesday afternoon with downfalls of up to 20mm. Surf conditions are expected to be treacherous and the BOM has warned people to stay away from the ocean.

Another 20mm could fill the gauge on Thursday morning. Then something of a lull on Friday – although rain is still expected.

After that it gets even soggier on the weekend with 20-30mm on Saturday afternoon and up to 45mm on Sunday.

Newcastle should see lower rain totals for the rest of the week but 60mm across the weekend is possible.

Canberra could clock up 25mm of rain on Wednesday and the grey, wet skies will just keep on going into and across the weekend. Anything from 60mm to 100mm could come down in the capital between Wednesday and Sunday.

Brisbane will see showers but may miss out on the worst of the rain. The wettest day is likely to be Sunday with up to 8mm falling.

It will be much more unsettled in southern inland areas, however.

Cunnamulla, for instance, could see storms on Wednesday and heavy falls on Saturday. Up to 100mm of rain could fall. Further north, Mount Isa could see 25mm midweek.

Melbourne won’t go untouched by the wet weather either. Wednesday could see up to 10mm of precipitation. After some showers on Thursday, another 20mm could come down on Friday before a relatively clear weekend.

Head inland and those rain totals ramp up. Wangaratta is forecast to get between 55 and almost 100mm between Wednesday and Friday. It’s similar for Bendigo. Mildura should expect a stormy Wednesday with 15-25mm of rain.

A severe weather warning is in place for north western Tasmania and King Island for damaging winds, with gusts of up to 90 km/h, on Wednesday.

Mostly clear for Burnie midweek but Thursday could see a drenching with 25-40mm followed by up to 30mm on Friday before the skies clear for the weekend.

Hobart will miss much of the heavy rain, although showers will pass through on Friday.

Some spots of rain in Adelaide for the rest of the week and weekend but nothing compared to further east. Up to 6mm is on the cards for Wednesday.

It will be mostly sunny in Perth with warm and dry days running into the weekend. Wednesday is the exception with around 10mm of moisture falling.

Darwin, meanwhile, will be stormy with around 10-20mm of rain possible each day this week and highs in the mid-thirties.