In some conservative California counties where anti-abortion candidates win, so does abortion

SACRAMENTO — In some of California’s most conservative counties, where Republican gubernatorial candidate Brian Dahle was the clear favorite over Gov. Gavin Newsom and where anti-abortion Christian conservatives are leading in partial returns, voters still showed up for abortion access by supporting Proposition 1.

The pro-choice measure, which will enshrine abortion and contraceptive access in the state constitution, was likely to pass from the beginning. After the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in June, Newsom vowed to make California an abortion sanctuary, and at a Proposition 1 election night watch party, he celebrated its passage with Planned Parenthood Affiliates of California President and CEO Jodi Hicks in Sacramento.

“It’s a point of pride, and it’s a point of principle,” he said.

It’s unsurprising that voters in blue California would pass Prop. 1 at the state level. But in counties that continue to lean Republican, where anti-abortion candidates keep getting elected, abortion itself is still pretty popular.

In Placer and El Dorado counties, voters overwhelmingly supported conservatives like Dahle and Congressional candidates Kevin Kiley and Tom McClintock. Kiley, who is currently leading in his election against Dr. Kermit Jones for the 3rd District seat, is against the procedure except in cases of rape or incest or if the life of the mother at risk.

The blunt-spoken McClintock, who earned a 0% rating rom NARAL Pro-Choice America, said of Proposition 1: “Before we hear the ‘My Body My Choice’ refrain, pardon a simple question. Does YOUR choice stop YOUR heart from beating, or suck YOUR brains from your skull? If the answer is no, maybe there’s somebody else whose body is affected.”

Conservative Christian school board candidates are also currently leading in early counts, and at the state legislative level, Republican Roger Niello, who is also anti-abortion, is ahead, too.

But support for Proposition 1 in Placer County stands at 54.5%. In El Dorado County, 54.2% have so far voted “yes.” It is also winning in Sierra County with a 51.2% lead. In Nevada County, there was huge support with 70.6% in early returns.

In Amador and Calaveras counties, both part of McClintock’s newly drawn 4th Congressional District, the measure is trailing by only around 200 votes, while anti-abortion Republican candidates are leading by thousands.

College-educated Republican women

That voters in these regions aligned themselves with a pro-choice measure is not surprising, according to Republican political consultant Mike Madrid.

“What you saw on election night was the defection of Republican college-educated women voting against the Republican Party and voting pro-choice where they could,” he said.

And of Placer and El Dorado, Madrid said: “These are wealthier enclaves of college-educated Republican suburban voters. This is the demographic with the most tenuous relationship with the Republican Party.”

The decision to overturn Roe v. Wade has certainly provided a loyalty test for this particular party faction.

“They like lower taxes, less regulation, and the free market. But … the rightward cultural drift is tolerable when it’s not existential. When it’s real and it’s on the ballot, voters behave differently, and vote outside of alignment with the party,” he said.

“It’s not that the Republican party didn’t get its message out – it did. But it was rejected.”

In California’s rural North State, where anti-abortion Trump supporter Rep. Doug LaMalfa has held his District 1 Congressional seat since 2012, the proposition isn’t hugely popular in places like Lassen, Shasta, Modoc, or Tehama counties. But in Butte County — where Dahle, LaMalfa, and Republican Senate candidate Mark Meuser were all ahead on Friday — 59.13% voted yes. No surprise, per Madrid, since Butte County includes the college town of Chico.

South of the Capitol in the state’s Central Valley, a major hub of the Recall Newsom movement last year and where conservative candidates have pulled ahead in most state and legislative elections, Proposition 1 is still popular.