GOP’s muted midterms jolt its House leadership rivalries

As Emmer’s standing in the race comes under new scrutiny, Republicans couldn’t seem to decide whether potential defections from his camp would translate to votes for Banks or Ferguson.

“That job is a tough job. When you win, everybody takes credit. When you lose, you get all the blame,” another House Republican said, referring to Emmer’s position atop the NRCC. “I think the guy who had a good night was Drew.”

Ferguson has problems of his own, however, as he’s not favored by McCarthy. The GOP leader, despite being on good terms with his No. 2, has viewed the Georgia Republican suspiciously as a Scalise ally who’s less likely to be a loyal No. 3.

Some, meanwhile, thought Emmer should still get credit if Republicans take the House, no matter the total size of the majority.

“Not to be cavalier … They still get the credit. If we get the majority, Tom Emmer gets credit and Kevin McCarthy gets credit. They get the credit,” said Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.), a House Freedom Caucus member, who attended McCarthy’s election night party Tuesday night.

The churn in the whip race comes as McCarthy and Scalise are working to lock down their respective positions as the No. 1 and No. 2 House Republicans next year. Scalise sent a letter to his colleagues Wednesday vowing to empower rank-and-file members and pledging to “work relentlessly to usher our vision through the House.”

Republicans are still betting that McCarthy snags the gavel — and he made his bid official Wednesday — but a narrower majority could mean headaches from a rightward flank that is eagerly waiting to exert its influence next year. Asked about McCarthy as the presumptive GOP leader, Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.) said Wednesday: “I would say maybe not so fast.”

“Maybe we should have a good discussion within the confines of our internal body. We were told that we were going to have an incredible, incredible wave … but I think we need to have a serious discussion,” said Biggs, a member of the House Freedom Caucus.

Yet it’s the race for the No. 3 position has turned nasty in recent weeks, with Tucker Carlson and Donald Trump Jr. jumping into the fracas after the Daily Beast posted a story last month that quoted an anonymous Republican invoking 25-year-old Banks aide Buckley Carlson, son of the Fox News host. And while the quote didn’t have clear ties to Emmer, allies of Banks — including Trump Jr. — accused the campaign chief of authorizing his camp to go after the young aide, a charge Emmer and his camp have forcefully disputed.

The episode illustrated Banks’ ties to Trump world, an undeniable boon as the former president still holds significant sway with much of the House GOP approaching what’s expected to be the announcement of a third presidential bid as soon as next week. But other members said the outside noise from Carlson and Trump Jr. would not affect their votes in leadership races.

Those lawmakers who said they didn’t plan to support Emmer instead pointed to votes he took that they disagreed with, particularly his vote to protect same-sex and interracial marriage.

As a third House Republican put it after a surprising night: “All the calculations change. I just don’t know what those are yet.”