Budget deficit slashed as tax take soars

In a move designed to ease inflationary pressures, the Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal outlook (MYEFO), released on Wednesday, shows revenue windfalls will be banked rather than spent, so that additional demand is not added to the economy.

But while Dr Chalmers is confident he is within “striking distance” of handing down a second surplus next May, he declined to lock it in.

“We have given ourselves a chance but we are not there yet and we have been deliberately cautious and deliberately conservative,” he told reporters in Canberra.

“We have seen in recent times and our predecessors what happens when you overpromise and under deliver.

“We have been determined to take a different approach to this, cautious and conservative when it comes to revenue upgrades, because of the uncertainty and volatility in the global economy and in our own domestic economy.”

The mid-year update revealed a staggering $12.8bn improvement to the 2023-24 budget with soaring commodity prices and low unemployment fuelling bumper tax receipts.

In May, Dr Chalmers forecast a deficit of $13.9bn for the current financial year.

But the razor-thin deficit is likely to heap more pressure on Dr Chalmers to deliver additional cost of living relief in the next budget, scheduled for May 2023.

In recent weeks, the Treasurer has fielded demands from aggrieved government backbenchers and community organisations over increased support for households which are being crunched by high inflation and soaring interest rates.

He said that he understood Australians were “doing it tough” but the priority was to focus on bringing down inflation.

“Our strategy over the past 18 months has delivered an historic turnaround in the budget position but we know there is still much more work to do,” Dr Chalmers said.

Government tax collections soar

Total revenue receipts were $17.1 billion higher than expected in the May budget, outstripping an increase in government spending which was up by $4.3bn.

The personal income tax take has been revised up by almost $9bn this financial year to reach above $360bn as a combination of low unemployment and wages growth, which pushes workers into higher tax brackets, adds to government revenues.

Meanwhile, tax receipts from mining companies and other non-mining firms swelled to a record $137.9bn bolstered by the surging prices for key commodities including iron ore, coal and gas.

Treasury has pushed out its forecasts for iron ore to reach $US60 a tonne to the September quarter 2024. In the May budget, officials had anticipated prices for the commodity would fall to this level by March.

However, iron ore prices have increased in recent months to hover at $US135 a tonne – more than double the forecasts – calling into question whether revised the updated forecasts will be accurate.

Indeed, federal and state treasuries have a track record of underestimating commodity prices during boom periods, enabling governments to take advantage of higher-than-expected prices.

Tax revenue as a share of the economy will reach 23.7 per cent this financial year, according to the budget update, the highest since 2008.

The mid-year update also states 92 per cent of the revenue upgrades will be banked over the four-year, forward estimates period.

However, this estimate by the Treasury does not account for the $13.2bn spent on the 15 per cent wage increase awarded to aged care workers and other off-budget funds worth almost $50bn.

Despite the bumper revenue windfalls, budget deficits are forecast to continue over the forward estimates, peaking at $35.1bn in 2025-26 before falling to $19.5bn in 2026-27.

Estimates of gross debt have been cut to $909bn for 2023-24, down from $923bn forecast in May. Gross debt is expected to rise past $1trn by 2025-26.