At 82.34, rupee ends marginally weaker ahead of US inflation test

The Indian rupee eased slightly against the dollar on Thursday, as investors were cautious ahead of US inflation data that is likely to come in hot and prompt the Federal Reserve to deliver a large rate hike.

The rupee ended at 82.3450, compared with its previous close of 82.3150, after trading in a narrow range through the session.

The currency has ended at or around 82.32 for the past four sessions, likely due to the Reserve Bank of India’s intervention though Thursday, traders said.

They believed the rupee had likely found its range for now, after hitting a record low of 82.6825 on Monday.

“We don’t foresee a large change in the rupee. There is a lot of selling interest around 82.50-82.60 per dollar in the market,” said Ritesh Agarwal, head of treasury at CTBC Bank.

A big surprise in the US consumer prices data could move the rupee out of the trading band, but that was “doubtful” as the inflation reading was likely to come within expectations, Agarwal said.

Core inflation in the US is projected to rise 6.5% year-on-year in September. The dollar index held 113 levels ahead of the release, due later in the day, as the probability of a 75-basis point hike next month went up to 84%. [FRX/]

Meanwhile, retail inflation in India accelerated to a five-month-high of 7.41% year-on-year in September, as food prices surged, data on Wednesday showed.

The numbers missed RBI’s target for the ninth month in a row and raised the chances of another rate hike at the December meeting.

For now, it seems inflation is “near its peak,” said CTBC’s Agarwal, but cautioned “a lot would depend on the rupee’s movement.”

Further depreciation in the currency could increase India’s import bill, which runs the risk of pushing inflation higher, he said.

The rupee has weakened nearly 11% so far this year, while India’s imports have outpaced its exports by a wide margin.

(Reporting by Anushka Trivedi in Mumbai; Editing by Savio D’Souza)

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