When Fox News’s ratings plummeted in the aftermath of the 2020 election, a panic ensued internally. Network executives scrambled to lure back angry viewers from alternative outlets as top hosts privately fumed that the network wasn’t doing enough to cauterize the wound by indulging, if not outright promoting, Donald Trump’s delusional claims of a stolen election. In its darkest days, Fox News sank to third place behind CNN and MSNBC, and for one key hour in one key metric, fell behind its much smaller and Trumpier rival, Newsmax.
There was a pervasive feeling among industry insiders, however, that Fox News would bounce back.
After all, the network always had in the past. The aftermath of presidential elections won by Democrats presents a cyclical challenge for Fox News, which sees its conservative audience tune out for a few months only to return for harsh coverage of the new administration.
When network stars left, from Bill O’Reilly to Megyn Kelly, bearish observers predicted the demise of the cable news giant. Each figure was easily replaced, to even greater success, fueling the mythology that no one is bigger than Fox News, a profit juggernaut and talent factory simply too big to fail.
Indeed, the network did bounce back after the 2020 election. After a historic run in last place in early 2021, Fox News finished the year as, once again, the top rated network in cable news. That marked Fox’s sixth year in a row as the number one channel on basic cable, and its 20th straight year as the number one network in cable news.
There are a few reasons why Fox was able to turn its dire predicament around. First, triage: On air, Trump’s election claims were treated credulously by the network’s biggest opinion hosts, giving the audience what they wanted. Fox News expanded the real estate of those voices across its schedule, canceling two hours of news in the evening and replacing them with opinion shows of the pro-Trump variety. Journalists on the news side of the network were sacked, while election-deniers from Trump’s administration were brought on board.
There was also the simple fact that the audience had nowhere to go. Sure, they temporarily decamped to alternatives like Newsmax and OANN, or simply turned off the TV and went outside (something we should all strive to do more). But the fact remains that Fox is the highest quality conservative media product out there. Watch five minutes of a well-produced, slickly-packaged Fox News program, broadcast from a multi-million-dollar studio, and it’s easy to see why viewers always return to the network from more rinky-dink options like OANN.
One major question is how Fox News handles the current crisis. We know, thanks to the Dominion defamation suit, that the last time the network faced an exodus of viewers the panic among leadership was so frenzied that hosts were allowed to promote Trump’s false election claims in a desperate bid to satisfy those viewers.
That cowardice in the face of the audience cost Fox News, one of the most profitable pillars of Rupert Murdoch’s empire, more than $787 million. One can only hope that through this new turbulence, Fox News remembers the cost of airing lies for ratings.
That said, it’s hard to believe, given history, that Fox News will face a prolonged crisis as a result of the Carlson ouster. But there are reasons to believe this time might be different.
Viewers had an emotional connection to Carlson, unmatched by his predecessors. He’s seen as more of a martyr than O’Reilly, who left amid a sexual harassment scandal, or Kelly, who departed for NBC after publicly clashing with Trump.
The current fury against the network, which has yet to publicly explain why Carlson was fired, is acute. Fox News host Kayleigh McEnany is a former Trump press secretary well-liked by the base, but when she announced on Twitter she would be hosting his old slot this week, angry viewers bombarded her tweet to let her know they would not be watching.
They meant it, as evidenced by the ratings: McEnany’s first try hosting the typically coveted 8 p.m. hour drew 1.55 million viewers, a fraction of the audience Carlson commanded even on a quiet night and the lowest-rated program in Fox’s prime time lineup.
And now, Fox faces competition that could pose a more threatening challenge than other cable news networks: Carlson announced Tuesday he will be taking his show to Twitter, a free platform that means his content will be more accessible than predecessors like O’Reilly, whose post-Fox shows remain behind a paywall on the more obscure reaches of the internet.
Adding to the trouble for Fox, Carlson has signaled he plans to go to war with the network that plucked him from cable news mediocrity and made him the most influential star in conservative media. Carlson, through his hard-charging lawyer Bryan Freedman, sent Fox a letter threatening legal action over alleged breach of contract and fraud. The opening salvo is an ominous sign for Fox as it struggles to keep Carlson’s fans happy and watching.
If Carlson is joined in his anti-Fox crusade by Trump, who remains the most powerful Republican voice in America, the danger to the network could be deadly. One former Fox Newser told me the network has few ways out of its current predicament.
“They solved the last crisis with Tucker and lies about Dominion — how will they solve this one? They are fucked.”
This is an opinion piece. The views expressed in this article are those of just the author.
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