Unexpected change to Australia’s weather

It could actually stop raining next week … for several days. In a row.

But rein in your excitement. It likely won’t last. And before we get there, forecasters are warning of the risk of some “particularly nasty severe weather” still to come to round out the weekend and into Monday.

In addition, there is still the lingering threat of an east coast low forming, one of the most powerful and potentially destructive storms in Australian waters.

On Sunday, the worst of the rain is likely to be directed to a stretch of coastline between the Sunshine Coast and northern New South Wales including Brisbane and the Gold Coast with the potential of more than 100mm falling in just a few hours.

Drenching for southern Qld on Sunday

Much of this area has been drenched in recent days.

In less than 48 hours, Beerburrum, near the Sunshine Coast, saw more than 90mm of rain while Hervey Bay recorded 85mm. That’s nothing compared to Tin Can Bay, south of Hervey Bay, which recorded a massive 325mm over two days.

“Southeast Queensland and the NSW Northern Rivers may be the target zone for the heaviest rain depending on exactly what happens with a developing low pressure system,” said Sky News Weather meteorologist Rob Sharpe.

“It’s still out to sea but it’s drifting slowly southward.

“If it comes in close to the coast, we could see heavy rain leading to hundreds of millimetres for parts of the southeast coast and into the Northern Rivers.”

If an east coast low does form it will likely be in this area. One of the most dangerous types of low pressure systems, these monsters can rapidly intensify delivering gale force winds, extremely heavy rain and treacherous seas.

But it’s still hit and miss as to whether an east coast low will occur as weather systems can be erratic.

Hervey Bay is forecast to receive showers for Sunday but it will be further south that the real dumping occurs.

The Sunshine Coast could see anything from 50-120mm rain on Sunday with potentially severe storms. That ramps up in Brisbane with 80-120mm forecast and then easing on Monday. And on the Gold Coast the top end of the forecast is for a massive 150mm on Sunday.

Heavy rain for NSW

Over the border and Byron Bay could register 70-120mm in the gauge on Sunday and a further 20mm on Monday. Grafton may get 50-90mm on Sunday and 15-30mm on Monday.

Port Macquarie is looking at up to 30mm of the wet stuff descending on Sunday and 40mm on Monday.

Parts of NSW have seen torrential rain and flooding including Moree.

For Sydney, Sunday will be damp – and possibly stormy – with as much as 10mm of rain falling. Monday will be wetter still with 20-35mm falling.

Canberra is set to see similar conditions on Sunday with a possible storm and up to 20mm on Monday.

Inland towns won’t dodge the precipitation and storms with around 15mm-20mm on Monday in places as far afield as Dubbo and Wagga Wagga.

Monday wettest day for Victoria

“Monday is the day that we could see the heaviest falls in Victoria over our already flooded rivers,” said Mr Sharpe.

Melbourne, for instance, could get a shower on Sunday with 5mm of moisture. But on Monday they cranks up to 20-30mm and around a further 10mm on Tuesday.

Wangaratta could record showers on Sunday and then up to 30mm on Monday.

Mostly dry in Hobart in Sunday, a few showers on Monday and then heavier rain – up to 20mm – on Tuesday.

The north of Tasmania will be soggier with Burnie set to receive as much as 40mm on Tuesday.

Adelaide will receive a few showers between Sunday and Tuesday but the totals will be low compared to elsewhere.

The break in the rain

As the low pressure system works its way out to sea, a change will follow, said Sky’s Mr Sharpe.

“After that event trails off through the southeast, we’ll be looking at some dry weather taking hold.

“Yes, there will still be some showers and storms in the mix, particularly in northern inland parts of the country.

“But the risk will subside at least for a few days in the east, with just some potential of rain from Friday onward for further severe thunderstorm activity.”

In the west, Perth will get up to 10mm of moisture on Sunday but it should disappear by Monday followed by a dry and sunny week.

Settled and dry in Darwin it partly cloudy skies for the week and mid-thirties highs.