Initial wheat sowing for the current rabi season has started on a healthy note and this should augur well for a government struggling to replenish its inventories. Though the new crop will start arriving in the markets only from the first week of April, a strong start to the sowing season portents well for the days to come.
According to initial data from the department of agriculture, wheat has been sown in around 54,000 hectares till October 28. This is 54 per cent more than the same period last year. In total, wheat is sown in around 30.5 million hectares of land in the full season. And, the area covered so far is a negligible portion of the total acreage.
However, this year, traders and market sources are hopeful that there could be a 10-15 per cent rise in wheat acreage. This is largely owing to good prices and strong demand. The late withdrawal of southwest monsoon has left good residual soil moisture along with easy availability of key crop inputs such as urea and DAP.
It is also expected to aid in a higher-than-normal wheat acreage in the coming rabi season.
Traders said because of the overall bullishness in the cereal complex — particularly in wheat and rice — there could be some shift in acreage from chana (gram) in Central and North India this year.
In the open market, wheat prices are hovering around Rs 2,700 per quintal in Delhi and its adjoining areas. This, till a few months back, was being quoted around Rs 2,400 per quintal.
The current market price is much more than even the revised MSP for the next season, which will start in April 2023. It has been fixed at Rs 2,125 per quintal, which is among the highest in recent years.
Among other crops, mustard acreage till October 28 has been almost 34 per cent higher than the same period last year. And, the area under chana is around 68 per cent more than last year.
This year, due to market prices being higher than the MSP, farmers opted to sell their produce to private players. This led to an almost 57 per cent drop in official procurement to around 19 million tonnes (MT) against 43.3 MT last year.
Wheat stocks in the central pool on October 1 are around 23 million tonnes. This is 11 per cent more than the buffer norm. The Centre hopes that in fiscal 2022-23 wheat stocks in the central pool will be around 11.3 million tonnes, which is higher than the buffer norm of 7.5 million tonnes. This is despite allocation for PDS and the free foodgrain distribution scheme.
A few days ago, a delegation of flour millers met senior government officials and requested them to liquidate a part of their inventories by November-December. This was because open market prices have jumped since the last few days.
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