Ex-PM’s big suggestion about China

Mr Rudd has questioned the accuracy of the economic figures released this week by Beijing’s National Bureau of Statistics.

China reported that its annual gross domestic product growth fell from 8 per cent in 2021 to 3 per cent last year, one of its worst results in 50 years.

But it said the figures reflected that the national economy had “withstood pressure” and economic output “reached a new level” while “people’s lives were continuously improved”.

Mr Rudd said the reported GDP growth of 3 per cent for 2022 was a best-case scenario for China and it might have even been worse given the country’s aggressive Covid-19 containment strategy.

“China obviously had no choice, zero-Covid was not working for China’s growth numbers, the 2022 growth numbers were at best 3 per cent, possibly less,” he said.

Mr Rudd said China’s immediate future remained uncertain but its economy at least should bounce back after Beijing suddenly abandoned its “Covid Zero” policy in December.

Mr Rudd made the comments as a member of a panel discussion hosted by Chinese news website Caixin Media at the World Economic Forum in Davos on Tuesday.

He said China’s official economic growth figure was now probably about 5 per cent and he expected more “solid growth” throughout the year.

“That will be good for China,” he said.

“Importantly, in a world where growth will be challenged with Europe facing recessionary challenges, the United States a question mark in terms of how soft or hard the landing will be, and the rest of the world in the developing world struggling.

“If China produces a solid growth number for 2023, 5 (per cent or more), that will actually underpin much global growth for the year to come.”

The former Labor prime minister is a fluent Mandarin speaker and served as a diplomat before entering federal parliament.

Mr Rudd said at the event in Davos he planned to visit Beijing before he moved to the US to take up his posting as Australia’s ambassador to the US.

“All I can say is that after three years China, we’ve missed you,” he said.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers said the ongoing uncertainty in China – where Covid-19 infection rates are soaring again – would be one of the biggest threats to Australia’s economy in 2023.

Dr Chalmers said on Monday that Treasury would update its economic forecasts before the federal budget was handed down in May, with China to be “a big part of the story”.

China is Australia’s largest two-way trading partner in goods and services, accounting for nearly a third of our global trade, according to the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade.