California snowpack far above average amid January storms, but a lot more is needed

A series of atmospheric river storms brought California heavy rains and above-average snowpack across the Sierra Nevada, but experts say the state still needs many more storms to begin to emerge from drought.

Snowpack across the Sierra Nevada now measures 174% of average for this time of year. But there are still three months left in the snow season, and the snow that has fallen to date remains just 64% of the April 1 average.

“It’s definitely a very exciting start to the year and a very promising start to the year. But we just need the storm train to keep coming through,” said Andrew Schwartz, the lead scientist at UC Berkeley’s Central Sierra Snow Laboratory.

Storms swept in from the Pacific last week, bringing torrential rains and triggering flooding in the Central Valley and other areas.

“The significant Sierra snowpack is good news, but unfortunately these same storms are bringing flooding to parts of California,” said Karla Nemeth, director of the state Department of Water Resources. “This is a prime example of the threat of extreme flooding during a prolonged drought as California experiences more swings between wet and dry periods brought on by our changing climate.”

The next storm is set to sweep in from the Pacific on Wednesday and Thursday, bringing more flooding and snow in the mountains.

“While we see a terrific snowpack, and that in and of itself is maybe an opportunity to breathe a sigh of relief, we are by no means out of the woods when it comes to drought,” Nemeth said.

State water officials held their first manual snow survey of the year on Tuesday at the Phillips Station snow course, one of more than 260 sites across the Sierra Nevada where the state tracks the snowpack.

“No single storm event will end the drought. We’ll need consecutive storms, month after month after month of above-average rain, snow and runoff to help really refill our reservoirs so that we can really start digging ourselves out of extreme drought,” said Sean de Guzman, manager of snow surveys for the Department of Water Resources.

California’s largest reservoirs remain very low after the state’s driest three years on record. Shasta Lake is at 34% of full capacity, while Lake Oroville is 38% full.

December 2021 brought heavy snow, but then the storms stopped and the state saw a record-dry January through March last year.

“We’re cautiously optimistic at this point. But we all know what could happen if the pattern turns dry,” de Guzman said. “This year’s snowpack is actually better than where we were last year. But at this point, we have over half of an average year’s snowpack, and with roughly three more months to build upon it. It’s still early in the season.”

Nemeth urged Californians to keep making efforts to conserve water. At the same time, she urged Californians to be alert during the floods and to follow local information from emergency officials.

The biggest of last week’s storms, on Friday and Saturday, was a large and warm atmospheric river, called a Pineapple Express, which dumped rain and snow across the mountains.

Nearly 6 feet of snow had piled up as of Tuesday at the snow laboratory at Donner Pass.The next storm is expected to be colder and bring 2 to 3 feet more snow at the lab on Wednesday and Thursday.

“Realistically, we’re looking at needing several above-average years to come out of the drought,” Schwartz said.

“We’re so far into drought that we’re really going to need those multiple years to help pull us out at this point,” he said. “We still need to keep up with our water restrictions and just keep our fingers crossed that the storm cycle continues.”